The NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory has recorded this event:

Pictures of the coronagraph of the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) show a CME emerging from the explosion. The expanding cloud is expected to hit Earth’s magnetic field during the early hours of April 13 (Saturday), possibly sparking geomagnetic storms and auroras with an intensity of S1 (weak).

This morning around 03:22 Z, a Class Flare x1.8 was issued by the same group of sunspots. The X flare caused a radio blackout R3 (strong) and currently the absorption layer D is high on the lower frequencies, up to about 5 MHz.

Moderate geomagnetic storms will be possible when the CME will arrive on our planet.

The cover picture and that below were taken by the amateur astronomer Simone Garrappa esclusively for DxCoffee with this equipment: Canon EOS 1000D on TS APO65Q and with an Astrosolar filter.

Photo credits by Simone Garrappa.

Strong bursts of static by the sunspot AR1476 , which is turning toward Earth, are registering on short waves. The amateur astronomer Thomas Ashcraft from New Mexico has detected strong bursts on shortwave. The strongest so far occurred around 1631 UTC on May 9. The observations refer to the bands of 28 MHz and 21.1 MHz

The solar radio burst are caused by instabilities in the plasma and, with the AR1476 in these conditions, this “radio activity” is likely to continue for days.

We’ll see ….

Photo by NOAA NWS Space Weather Prediction Center.

Goddard Space Lab analysts say the CME is en route to the earth and its impact is expected on March 15 at 06:20 UT (+ / - 7 hours) and could trigger a mild or moderate geomagnetic storm.

Photo credits by flickr:Lights In The Dark.

At the same time, auroras have been recorded in New Zealand and Tasmania. Solar activity for the next 24 hours is expected to be strong. Geomagnetic storms can reach the level of G3. Blackout radio may reach the  R2 level (modest).

 Several minor flares (Class C and M) have defined the beginning of the month of March, which is proving to be one of intense solar activity and consequently, propagation conditions are rather lively. In fact, possible ionospheric anomalies are possible which may in some cases may lead to fadeouts and rapidly changing MUF, with deleterious effects to DX and HF communications in general. On the other hand, an active sun will not only bring about a rising trend in the number of sunspots, but will lead to additional openings on the upper bands. The sunspot maximum forecast for sometime in 2013, is approaching ….

Incoming protons from the storm have been rated at S3 (Strong = Strong).

Precautionary measures should be taken:

Biological: radiation avoidance recommended for astronauts on EVA, passengers and crew of aircraft at high altitudes at high latitudes.

Satellite operations: Noise in imaging systems and slight reduction in efficiency of solar panels.

Other systems: Likely HF radio propagation reduction through the polar regions.

Photo by Ronn Murray, Jan.22,2012, Alaska.

STORM is an ionospheric correction model that allows to correct the critical frequency of F layer (foF2) and is useful for users HF. During a geomagnetic storm the foF2 can be reduced or increased. When the foF2 has increased, you can use higher frequencies, enabling a reduction of absorption and an increase in received signal strength. If the foF2 is reduced, the maximum frequency used must be reduced to ensure the reflection of the radio signal from the ionosphere. The amount of correction needed is perceived from the color of the lines according to latitude and hemisphere.

Photo Credit: NASA/Martin Stojanovski